Straight Shooter? More Like Quick Draw Believer

“Shooting Straight” is a column written by Valeriano Avila in The Freeman, a newspaper out of Cebu. “Shooting Straight” also appears in The Philippine Star under the name Bobit S Avila.

In his Freeman article (Dec 1, 2009) Mr Avila asks in his headline, “About that Facebook survey: Is it credible?” He is referring to the mock election being run by the Facebook App Election2010 that has run three rounds of polls with a fourth underway.

(For those unfamiliar with the term App, it’s short for Application Software that is nested in a computer program to assist the user in a task, in this case, creating instant voting in the Facebook program. Facebook, Inc. did not develop the Election2010 App. In fact, almost all of the Apps on Facebook are created by third parties—developers from outside Facebook; a concept that seems to elude Mr Avila, with comments like “Facebook came up with a third survey” when he should be crediting the developers of the Election2010 App.)

The results of the online poll seem to have a big impression on Mr Avila ever since he listened to almost-presidential candidate Chiz Escudero more than two months ago. Based on US President Obama’s success, Senator Escudero reportedly said, Facebook and Twitter results were more believable than SWS or Pulse Asia polls. But then-Senator Obama didn’t just read the results of one online poll. And this is the only target of Mr Avila’s focus; a Facebook poll at that. The internet deserves better representation, especially since online success relies on 1) a broad, integrated presence online with a single-minded message, and 2) converting passive internet users into active brand champions on- and offline, and not just on a single set of mock election results.

Despite the New Media Marketing 101 course outline, Mr Avila gives the mock elections by Election2010 his full, sophomoric endorsement on its veracity and impartiality.

There was a survey that was totally fair because it wasn’t done by the politicians or their PR agencies, nor was money spent to collate this information. The latest Facebook mock survey covering the period Nov.23-29. Gilbert Teodoro bagged 58% of the votes, Noynoy Aquino bagged 31.76%, Manny Villar got 7.10%, while former Pres. Joseph “Erap” Estrada got 1.1%. The first two Facebook mock surveys showed Noynoy was leading the race.

- Straight Shooter (The Freeman), via www.philstar.com Updated December 01, 2009

While the Election2010 mock poll could in fact be “totally fair”—conducted without bias or rigging it—the methodology is up in the air. This is where SWS and Pulse Asia surveys are a great, reliable resource; each survey result has details on sample size, age, and methodology for getting the information, not to mention complete transparency with regard to commissioner, or exclusivity or first rights to publish.

The Election2010 poll has none of these. Nobody went out to find respondents. The respondents may have found it by search, accident, or by referral. Because of this uncertainty, the trending in Gibo’s favor is not clear. Was it due to comments by any candidate? Did the Gibo machinery mobilize supporters to find that App and vote? Is there a margin of error, in the case of mistaken identity or accidental answering?

None of these possible causes are more or less improbable than the other, if at all. Neither are they unethical or underhanded since its credibility is far from established. But without Mr Avila’s discerning its methodology, and to then proclaim it to be “totally fair” is naïve and irresponsible as a journalist.

What’s more, Mr Avila published a similar article, this time in the Philippine Star, “A look at the surveys done by Facebook.” It is difficult to see that he is referencing the same poll, as in the Philippine Star article, the poll period has changed from Nov. 23-29 to Nov. 20-30. The poll results also changed, and so did his tone, saying instead that the “mock surveys of Facebook have become a counter balancer to the pollsters surveying voters in this country.”

Not only is he lacking with background facts, but the facts that he does have are not as straight as his column name suggests.

Apparently, Facebook came up with a third mock survey for Nov. 20-30th and lo and behold, Lakas-Kampi Presidential bet, Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, Jr. bagged a significant 58.69% lead over Noynoy who bagged 31.90%. This was followed by Sen. Manny Villar at 5.80%, Erap at 1.45%. Now should we believe in the Facebook survey? Perhaps those batting for Noynoy would no longer believe it as he has slid down from the top.

- Straight Shooter (The Philippine Star) via www.philstar.com Updated December 02, 2009

Clearly, his goal is single-minded agreement with Chiz’s two month-old Quixotism, “Facebook or Twitter is a better sampling than our present crop of pollsters.”

So if Facebook or Twitter is indeed a better sampling mechanism, it is important to look at similar indicators evident on these social networking sites. As of December 1, 2009, Noynoy’s Official Facebook “Politician Page” has 110,679 supporters as compared to Gibo’s 8,950 fans. Chiz’s Facebook Politician Page has almost the same number as Manny Villar’s page at just around 39,000.

On Twitter, the short messaging service online, Noynoy has 22,045 followers while Gibo has 5,105. At the same time, according to internet analytics, Noynoy is collecting more followers at a 2:1 ratio when compared to new followers of Gibo.

Even Senator Mar Roxas, Liberal Party candidate for vice-president, has more followers than Gibo, with 23,366.

In summary, Mr Avila is creating great, albeit negative press for Gibo’s success on this “Facebook survey” as he repeatedly calls it. And while the Arroyo-backed candidate is improving his online presence, the bigger picture, backed by solid and self-evident statistics, shows Noynoy with a commanding lead in terms of fans, supporters, and followers in this multi-dimensional field called social media or new media. And in spite of Noynoy’s early lead among Facebook and Twitter users, there is no indication that his snowballing popularity will slow, as week-on-week incremental numbers show.

On the surface, Mr Avila postures with healthy, journalistic skepticism in both of his articles. However, the straight shooting “skeptic” gets converted to “believer” in a quick draw, and that is the product of a lack of investigation, lack of hunger for facts, and lack of critical analysis.